Identifying high-risk areas for introduction of new alien species: the case of the invasive round goby, a door-knocker for Norway

Abstract Identifying new areas of colonisation by alien species is important for early detection and management. Door-knocker pose problems traditional predictive models because lacking presence–absence data, but habitat suitability modelling might overcome this. We here identify the most likely introduction first establishment invasive round goby Neogobius melanostomus to Norway, where it has not yet been registered. implemented knowledge on dispersal pathways species’ biology in a simplified model based spatial data representing relevant environmental variables: distance international harbours closest population neighbouring country, salinity, wave exposure, depth water temperature. The results suggest that there are many potential localities reveal several hotspots such areas, especially less-exposed coastal brackish southern Norway. Especially region around Oslo Fjord stands out as being associated with higher risk. Our could guide future monitoring programmes increase chance this invader. study illustrates how analyses can be used invasion an aquatic door-knocker despite data.